The 2024 Election

I'm laying down this post so I can have a reference that should put some context around the things that I say about the 2024 election. I'll try to be as succinct as possible; other posts may go into some of these things in more detail and may actually have references to back this all up.

I very much believed Democrats were going to win the election after Kamala Harris took over. I'm not going to dwell here on Biden stepping down; that is a whole other, very ranty post.

I thought we were going to win for one main reason: Harris looked strong and Trump looked weak. Didn't matter in the end, though, because Republican messaging won the day long before November 2024.

Biden did a lot that probably didn't count

The Biden administration was one of the most productive in decades. CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and the Infrastructure bill were massive accomplishments, especially given the current partisan atmosphere. Many of the projects from these bills went to red states and meant good jobs and supporting businesses. Millions in student loans were forgiven in defiance of SCOTUS bullshit. Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken resuscitated a barely breathing NATO, helped turn it into a savior for Ukraine, and even expanded it to include countries that were neutral during the Soviet era(!). When Europe decided to cut their dependence on Russian oil, Biden made sure that the U.S. could fill the gap, even with the Saudis holding back. Biden prevented a massive energy crisis and made the U.S. the worlds largest oil producer.

It was fairly clear, even early on, that these accomplishments were having little impact on the election. In fact, given the way the Obama and Trump presidencies went, it should have been obvious to the Biden administration on day one that these kinds of things wouldn't get noticed.

The Harris campaign was a better traditional campaign than Trump's

When Harris took over, she hit the ground running and never slowed down:

• She raised a billion in, what, a month?
• Tim Walz was an excellent pick and he really got under their skin with the "weird" thing. The Republican efforts to trash his service never made any headway at all. JD Vance was a weird non-issue that persuaded no one.
• The most beautiful, heartfelt, and inspiring DNC of my lifetime.
• Her rallies were so packed with people that Trump had to resort to pretending it was AI. The lineup of famous people was amazing.
• Harris' ground game was gigantic and Trump had to rush something together at the last minute.
• Her message was upbeat, positive, and hopeful in the face of a serious threat and her surrogates pounded on his lawlessness, misogyny, and his attacks on the Constitution.

On the other hand, Trump's campaign looked weak, at least to me. His debate performance was unhinged and Harris made him look like the easily baitable bitch that he is. His rallies were lame and rambling and even the corporate media couldn't make them look good. He had to interrupt campaigning to deal with his legal issues that were constantly in the news. At no point did Trump have a strong news cycle.

And what about the Republican Congress? I don't think there has been such a dysfunctional, poorly led group of morons running the House of Representatives in generations. Why on Earth would you want to put that group back in power?

Sure, war in Palestine was a weakness for Harris and Democrats. But, for Chrissakes, Trump was a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, and an insurrectionist that attacked the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. How is that not a weakness?

I'm not surprised that legislative accomplishment meant little, but I was stunned that the difference between those campaigns didn't sink Trump especially with late breaking voters. Even Trumpists don't like weakness. You know they'd never vote for Harris, but they might have just stayed home.

Sure, racism / sexism, but also..

When Harris / Walz lost, I went to the same "America is so racist / sexist that they'd elect a Nazi instead of a black woman" place that many of us did. There is no doubt in my mind that we are more racist and sexist than most of us want to believe. While few, if any, surveys indicated race or sex as an issue, we all know that at this point that people don't generally admit it in a survey, or even to themselves.

Post election, though, the answers Trump supporters gave were just nuts. I'll eventually dig up the references, but people cited things like transgender surgeries being performed in schools (comically non-sensical); how the economy was better under Trump (he did nothing to make it good and it tanked during the pandemic); and illegal immigration. AOC sent out an Instagram questionnaire to people that voted for both her and Trump and the results were thin gruel.

Why? Why are these the defining issues?

Illegal immigration is not the biggest problem in the U.S. Not even close. In general it is a net gain and this is really not a question. The undocumented commit fewer crimes, they contribute taxes and can't get benefits, and they do jobs that Americans just will not do.

Immigration, transgender surgeries in schools, and trans athletes are issues because Republicans make them issues.

Conservatives stopped legislating and focused on the media landscape

I spent the last 4 years railing against the regular cycle of conservative outrage on my passionate, yet erudite Facebook page that is followed by dozens. They threw fits about Critical Race Theory in elementary schools (a subject that has only ever been taught in graduate-level law courses), the desexualization of M&Ms, drag queens, DEI programs, how masculine the Russian army was (while it was on it's way to losing 800,000 men to gain no territory), and, of course, their stunts at the US / Mexico border.

At the same time, Biden was rolling out all of these amazing legislative achievements. Why wasn't I talking about those? Why weren't conservatives on the defensive, pushing back against the narrative that Biden was doing so much for the country? Trump's Presidency was an unmitigated disaster and Biden was doing a great job, but the American conversation was about M&Ms, drag queens, trans women, and immigrants.

Madison Cawthorn announced after his election in 2020 that he would build his staff around "comms". He admitted openly that he had no intention of drafting legislation, but would be spending his time on Fox News, OAN, and the rest of the conservative media network. This was was not new, though. He was just saying the quiet part out loud.

Republicans gave up on policy many years ago, beginning in earnest in early 2009 when Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell convinced fellow Republicans to oppose everything that the Obama administration did, including conservative health care proposals and, even, tax cuts. Some of the most prominent Republicans, like Ted Cruz and Jim Jordan, have never authored a single piece of substantive legislation. Capable legislators like Eric Cantor were dumped for incompetent blowhards like David Bratt. Paul Ryan was fêted like a wonky rock star when he just barely managed to push through a tax cut with a Republican President and majorities in the House and Senate.

In '09 it was Fox News and Rush Limbaugh that originated messaging that was then parroted by legislators. Over time it's become a more diverse cast that's included not just Fox hosts like Tucker Carlson, but also Chris Rufo, Charlie Kirk, Dan Bongino, Matt Walsh, Ben Shapiro and, of course, Trump himself. Trump leads the party not because he is capable of pushing through Republican legislative priorities, but because he is so good at forcing media to focus on whatever he wants them to. Dozens of lawmakers have basically the same job as podcasters and TikTok influencers, doing little more than amplifying whatever the current message is. Congressional hearings are held with no intention of shaping legislation, but to force the press to cover some talking point.

This media machine is ubiquitous and unrelenting and has managed to successfully span the internet-fractured landscape. Go to a food desert served by a Dollar General and a WalMart 30 miles away and you'll find Fox News on the TV at the body shop and nothing on the radio but God, guns, gays, and Critical Race Theory all day, every day. Open Instagram and you'll find a "trad wife" influencer pushing a conservative lifestyle. Open TikTok and you'll find Chaya Raichik sending legions of trolls after gay couples, trans activists or even hospitals that perform gender-affirming surgery. Open Twitter and you'll find Elon Musk and an army of Nazis and the Nazi-adjacent. Top podcast listings are thick with conservative voices like Candace Owens, Megan Kelly, Charlie Kirk, and, of course Joe Rogan.

When Trump voters were asked after the election why they voted for him, many, including immigrants and former Biden voters, cited Republican talking points.

• Transgender surgeries in prisons
• Transgender surgeries in public schools
• Men in women's bathrooms
• The economy was better under Trump
• Inflation
• Illegal immigration

As transparently stupid as so much of it was, their message got out and it almost certainly got there long before Democrats showed up.

Democrats outsource their messaging until the last half of an election year

We saw a lot of ads for Harris in the last half of 2024. I think every single YouTube video I saw started with an Obama or with Kamala herself. I don't watch commercial TV much myself, but Harris was pretty much anywhere she could get. She did interviews, podcasts, though, of course, not Joe Rogan.

Her messaging was expertly crafted, an excellent balance of warning about how terrible a Trump 2.0 would be and an uplifting positive tone that had Republicans pushing back that "Joy is not a platform". Tim Walz and other surrogates were great. Her rallies were exciting, young, and energetic compared to Trump's rambling weave of non-sequiturs and grievance to a sea of white faces, a large percentage of which travel with him like Deadheads.

It was too late.

Where was Biden's comms team for the first three and a half years? They sure weren't on the radio. Instagram live? Nope. Interviews on sports podcasts? Nope. Cooking show? Nope.

Biden's comms team was talking to reporters from traditional media outlets. And, that, not even so much. Like the last Democratic Presidents, Joe Biden thought his accomplishments would speak for themselves and that positive coverage in the traditional press would ensue, especially against the backdrop of a felonious insurrectionist. But unlike the natural attention lovers like Bill Clinton or Lyndon Johnson, Biden couldn't even be bothered to go to an infrastructure project ribbon cutting.

And, so, all we talked about for 4 years was CRT, DEI, the latest Republican governor immigration stunt, how too many doors is the real culprit behind school shootings, and the importance of taking advice on masculinity from a coward and a sex trafficker. Republicans filled the void left by Democrats, so when we finally showed up, the context, the environment, was already defined.

Be like Madison Cawthorn but without the drug use and sex tapes

(You really don't need to Google the Madison Cawthorn sex tape)

Democrats had an amazing 4 years of legislative accomplishments and a campaign season that included a selfless act of deference and one of the most joyous, inspiring campaigns we'll ever see. We campaigned against a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, insurrectionist traitor. If Walter Cronkite had been on the air, Trump would have been lucky to win a state. But Walter Cronkite has been replaced by hundreds of voices and any given person only hears a tenth of them.

Democrats need to focus on "comms" and almost nothing else. Getting legislation successfully passed should be the lowest of priorities. Not only does it take away from the effort needed for communications, but any bipartisan success in the next 4 years helps Trump look legitimate and will not win a single new voter for Democrats. These are open fascists. They don't need any help at all.

Comms needs to be 24/7/365. Throw shit at the wall and see what sticks, then go to where the people are, repeat until you're sick of repeating and then say it again. And if one particular iteration loses steam, find another one and pound it over and over again. Do not let up, even after winning an election. I don't recall where I saw it, but someone asked Larry Bird why he was going back to practice right after winning a championship. He said something to the effect of "After winning, they're going to be after me next year. I'll have to be twice as good."

We don't need to be liars. We don't need to make up boogiemen like CRT. We are being run by depraved oligarchs that believe the rules apply to you and not them. It'll be easy to maintain a message that they are corrupt, selfish, and greedy because they simply are and they can't help but confirm.

Trump's administration will be bad. It will fail repeatedly because they are contemptuous of competence. They will do truly terrible things. Rural conservatives will almost certainly die as a direct result of Trump's behavior. But it won't matter if the message doesn't get out. People watched their loved ones die of COVID because Trump wouldn't wear a mask and they voted for him anyway. He'll cut the SSI that they depend on and then go along with whatever scapegoat he hands them unless Democrats get there first.

Don't rely on traditional media ever again. Grab hold of the microphone and don't let it go. Take it everywhere, every day. Trump will be bad, but we have to make sure people hear it and see it wherever they are.